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Wasn't everyone that was correct basing their polling on 2008?  They are actually claiming that all the polls that showed Obama winning were rigged with a pre-assumption that Obama would win and they just happened to be lucky.


New York Magazine was trying to be sympathetic to the popular polling figures on its own side of the political, but let out a secret in the process: Public Policy Polling cooked the books all along.
I don’t remember anyone willing to say PPP was actively rigging the polls to reach chosen results, but there it is in black and white. Jensen decided in advance what he wanted the electorate to look like, and so tweaked the numbers until he got what he wanted. This isn’t a whole lot different from what Research 2000 admitted to doing, folks.
Then there's the comments that follow the article as readers argue over Nate Silver and the "rigged polls":
But Silver's calculations are all based on the rigged polls. He guessed right because they guessed right. There was no objective information that turnout would be what it was. They all got lucky. That is definitely not science.


    Nate Silver based his calculations on a number of national and state polls and applied it to his system. He was 49/50 in 2008 and 50/50 in 2012. It's probability and therefore science. It's not an exact science but he has outperformed pretty much everyone else.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (14+ / 0-)

    A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people ... restore their government to it's true principles.

    by maddrailin on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:22:15 AM PST

  •  Whine, whine, whine. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    'nuf said.

    being mindful and keepin' it real

    by Raggedy Ann on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:26:25 AM PST

  •  So I suppose (0+ / 0-)

    that the VOTES were rigged too, even with the REPUBLICAN voter suppression? Cry moar, Republicans.

    •  lol oh yea (0+ / 0-)

      there was massive voter fraud, Nigerians flown in and bused to polling locations, people showing up at polls in cities - people the poll watchers have never seen before - apparently some of them were EVEN people of color, gasp.

      A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people ... restore their government to it's true principles.

      by maddrailin on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:34:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  "That is definitely not science." (4+ / 0-)

    I love the irony.  Even though a lot Republican bloggers  might be considered experts on what is definitely not science, they are obviously not intellectually qualified to make the determination.  

  •  the right wing's connection to reality (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Deep Texan

    experienced a "big bang" with Obama's election in 2008.  Their thinking, at that point began to move away from accepted reality at ever expanding speed. His re-election seems to have caused their thinking to enter a period of expansive hyperinflation which has increased the speed of their flight from central reality to a previously unimaginable rate.

    my apologies to any astrophysicists out there.

  •  Of course. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Deep Texan

    When reality doesn't match your preconceived notion, reality is wrong.

    This is tenet number one of republican science.  

    It's one reason republican science is so much less expensive than wasteful democratic science - look at all the money you can save by eliminating troublesome steps such as experimentation, etc.

    I thought this was common knowledge by now.

    •  yea but MAN (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      at some point they need to find a way back to planet earth - there are a few Republicans who seem to be anchored in reality, but most - even the hi profile ones are having severe mental breaks from reality - I mean they aren't just bullshitting - they REALLY believe all this shit - it's not just talking points

      A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people ... restore their government to it's true principles.

      by maddrailin on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:56:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I honestly think they always have (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KibbutzAmiad, Deep Texan

        We've just been projecting sanity onto them.

        Many of them are not sane.  It's clear as a bell.

        When you have a $1 Billion presidential campaign essentially denying reality TO THEMSELVES, something is dreadfully, dreadfully wrong.  

        Time to hang it up.  These people are nuts.  Go find the sane ones and recruit them away.  There's no way to negotiate with people who are not connected to reality.

        •  They are not nuts. They are just missing (0+ / 0-)

          some cognitive connections. Either their cognitive brains are not connected to the emotional stem or the cognitive brain is missing some functions, like keeping track of time and sequence and spatial relationships. Their senses aren't confused; they don't have them. I don't think it's a memory function, but a processing function that's missing. They have cognitive disabilities, but they don't show up in an educational system that's geared to absorption and regurgitation. What goes in gets stored and then comes back out, in response to prompts, unchanged. And we call such people intelligent -- storehouses of information.

          We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

          by hannah on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 05:25:14 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  well they do believe in an invisible man (0+ / 0-)

            who lives in the sky or planet kalob.

            they have memory and function.  another part of their brain shuts it down.

            i think it's the god delusion but i understand that's offensive to some ppl, so i try to play nice.

            -You want to change the system, run for office.

            by Deep Texan on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:09:44 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  And that logic is used in climate change denial (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Stunning. Actually terrifying. But what can we do?

    "Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." ~Edward Abbey ////\\\\ "To be a poor man is hard, but to be a poor race in a land of dollars is the very bottom of hardships." ~W.E.B. DuBois

    by rovertheoctopus on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:55:51 AM PST

  •  Obama hire a (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Psychiatrist - a national therapist czar ?  lol  - i mean you ever see that show about the Doomsday Preppers?   That's the opposition party

    A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people ... restore their government to it's true principles.

    by maddrailin on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:58:53 AM PST

  •  THEY STILL LOST (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    And attacking Nate is petty. Didn't Karl Rove snowball all the GOP mega donors w/ polls saying they were going to win and where did George Will and Michael Barone come up w/ those numbers. Unskewed wankery.

  •  what the quotes demonstrate is that there's (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tytalus, kingfishstew

    no awareness of the logical sequence of events -- that, for example, Nate Silver looked at poll results first and then recalculated the data with his formula.
    It is doing things in a proper sequence that escapes the ken of people who exist in an ineffable present.
    Imagine the difference between having all the ingredients for a pie crust and a pie and then compiling them in the necessary sequence to bake an edible pie and seeing a pie with no awareness of the ingredients or the steps taken to make it. Instinct-driven people see and smell a pie and define it as good and never even think about how it came to be. Which explains how it comes that they don't know how babies came to be, either. Process is not something their brains register, mostly, I think, because they have no sense of time or no sequential memory. It's like their brains do not have an internal calendar which keeps track of the sequence in which information is received.
    I think it is significant that all great civilizations have developed calendars, a system to track time. It's a necessity if people are to work together. However, once the system is in place, there is no need for every person to even be aware of it. With other people to keep them on track, they can ignore what time it is entirely. So, the internal clock function that some people have is lagniappe, as far as the species is concerned.
    But, letting the clueless run things is a major flaw. They're fine, if all that's wanted is a figure head. Which suggests that the title of CEO has become deceptive.  Either that, or some people don't know the difference between "execute" and "executive" or think that execute is a synonym for kill.

    We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

    by hannah on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 05:17:08 AM PST

    •  It's much simpler than that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      They don't understand the scientic process or mindset, so they cherry pick bits of information that do make sense to them, that they can wrap their heads around then reconstruct a narrative only out of the pieces that they understand.

      It's basic scientific illiteracy welded on top of willful disregard of facts in evidence and a heaping dose of wishful thinking.

      Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

      by a gilas girl on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:21:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Are you afraid a a couple of wizards? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Deep Texan, raincrow

    We don't need no stinkin' wizards.

  •  The flat earth society called (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    they want their paranoid delusion back.


    Them bad ol PPPs and Silvers!


    The power of the communist left is awesome indeed!!!


    by raincrow on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:40:59 AM PST

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